The term "megatrends" was coined by John Naisbitt in a 1980 bestseller of identical title. Megatrends are characterized by a long half-life, (at least one generation), they appear in all areas of life and they have a global character. The prognosis of megatrends is not star-gazing, but is founded on objective, comprehensible data leading to logical conclusions.
Anyone missing a trend risks landing on the economic sidelines. Perhaps one of the most well known missed trends of the more recent age is IBM's belated entry into the world of PCs. In its day, the Big Blue Machine was the undisputed leader of office technology, with a market share of 60%. There was hardly an office not sporting at least one piece of equipment with the blue IBM logo. Despite its belated entry, IBM was still big enough to give the "PC" its name, but the competitive advantage was lost. IBM is still a giant, but the previous market dominance was never gained back.
Therefore, it is hardly surprising that mega companies spend a lot of money to study megatrends. What works for mega companies certainly applies equally well to smaller businesses. What has become of the village pub which could be found in any small community 50 years ago? Or the neighbourhood grocery store? The disappearance of these businesses was the first step in what is known today as "the death of retailing". When you don't travel by horse or bicycle any longer, you don't need a grocery store just around the corner. Anyone planning to open a village pub today is investing his money against the megatrend. Studying megatrends is a worthwhile endeavour, therefore.
But which megatrends are important for us today? Let's just name a few: |
